pedro_pablo_top_trumps

COMEBACK OF THE YEAR

He trailed the first round of the presidential election with just 21% to Fujimori’s 40%. He overturned it in the second round, albeit by the wafer-thin margin – of just 41,057 in an electorate of 17 million.1Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
Source: Ipsos Peru
Base: 1,289 adults aged 18+, 12-14 October 2016
Image credit: By Presidencia de Perú – https://www.presidencia.gob.pe/img/slide-11.jpg, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=50379004

“Kuczynski’s astonishing win has generated great expectations. But as his rival Fujimori’s party won a majority in the Peruvian Parliament, he will need the support of public opinion to advance his policies. If he loses majority public support in 2017 he will find it very difficult to govern.”
Alfredo Torres, Ipsos Peru

 

 

 

justin_trudeau

EXTENDED HONEYMOON

One year on, his latest poll ratings – 65% positive, with 63% saying his government is “full of great ideas” are the envy of almost all politicians everywhere.2Justin Trudeau
Source: Ipsos Canada
Base: 1,000 adults aged 18+, 11–14 October 2016
Image credit: By Presidencia de la República Mexicana – Flickr, CC BY 2.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=50759009

“As 2016 comes to an end Prime Minister Trudeau’s polling numbers are cause for celebration and concern. On the issues that most worry Canadians – health care and job creation – the jury is still out. Will Canadians continue to enjoy their Prime Minister being fêted internationally, or will their parents’ search for home care and their 27-year-old unemployed son’s occupation of their basement become the lens through which they judge the government?”
Mike Colledge, Ipsos Canada

 

 

 

theresa_may

THERE MAY BE TROUBLE AHEAD

Things are looking good: the largest lead over Labour since 2009, a 48% personal satisfaction rating (versus 28% under David Cameron). But talk of ‘hard Brexit’ and the tumbling pound has spooked the public and business already, and there is much more to come. 2017 won’t be easy.3Theresa May
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: 1,016 British adults aged 18+, 14–17 October 2016
Image credit: By UK Home Office – https://www.flickr.com/photos/ukhomeoffice/21450866922, CC BY 2.0, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=51065934

“Theresa May is ending 2016 still in her honeymoon period. However, past polling suggests that this will end soon and the big question is what happens once this wears off. Her challenge in 2017 is to negotiate an EU exit on terms that can satisfy all sides of a divided Kingdom, whilst preventing a recovery by the opposition Labour Party.”
Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI

 

 

 

michel_temer

ROCK BOTTOM

2016 was not a good year for the Brazilian political class – it saw ex-President Rousseff impeached, new president Temer banned from standing for re-election, and 303 of 513 deputies in Congress currently facing criminal charges. No surprise then that 83% of Brazilians say the country’s going in the wrong direction.4Michel Temer
Source: Ipsos Brazil
Base: 1,200 adults aged 16+, 1-12 October 2016
Image credit: By Licurgo.miranda – This file was derived from:  Michel Temer planalto.jpg, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=41503958

“2016 has been the low point for Brazilian politicians of all stripes. 2017 will shape the economic narrative as Brazil looks to the 2018 elections: Temer’s government’s reforms may please the markets but are unlikely to please the people too. Corruption remains a major issue – particularly if Temer or his cabinet are caught up in ongoing corruption investigations.”
Danilo Cersosimo, Ipsos Brazil

 

 

 

francois_hollandeHOLLANDE FEELING LOW

His approval ratings tumbled into the red in August 2012, just two months after his election. They’ve stayed there ever since. Average public approval score during 2016 was 18%. The least popular President of the Fifth Republic.5Francois Hollande
Source: Ipsos France
Base: 957 adults aged 18+, 14-15 October 2016
Image credit: By COP Paris – Flickr.com, CC0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=46756148

“Caught between national pessimism and their drive to be personally happy, the French people are a paradox. They are terrified by President Hollande’s political nightmare, yet fascinated by his colourful private life. In a country that has talked of ‘crisis’ for 40 years yet reacts with passivity and indifference to so much – one question remains: Is France an island? 2017 will tell.”
Yves Bardon, Ipsos France

 

 

 

malcolm_turnbullDEADLOCK DOWN UNDER

After gambling on an early election in July, he came out with a single-seat majority and personal approval ratings 13 points down on earlier in the year. Turnbull now has three years’ breathing space, but little room for manoeuvre.6Malcolm Turnbull
Source: Fairfax/Ipsos
Base: 1,377 adults aged 18+, 26-29 June 2016
Image credit: By DoD photo by U.S. Army Sgt. First Class Clydell Kinchen – https://www.flickr.com/photos/secdef/24463397435/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=46571322

“Formerly an articulate critic of previous administrations and a long-time contender for top office, PM Turnbull has failed to manage his party’s right wing or make headway on key policy areas. As we head into 2017, his key challenge is resolving the issue of same-sex marriage, which has become a political football in Australia.”
Jessica Elgood, Ipsos Australia

 

 

 

hillary_clintonSHATTERPROOF GLASS

In the year of the outsider, the ultimate political journeywoman simply had too much baggage. It was very close, but this willl be of no comfort. The Democratic Party’s challenge for 2017 is how to recover, re-energise their base, and plan for mid-term elections.7Hillary Clinton
Source: Ipsos North America
Base: 3,198 adults aged 18+, 2-6 November 2016
Image credit: By United States Department of State – Official Photo at Department of State page, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7526134

“Clinton’s campaign is peppered with ‘what ifs’, but hindsight is 20/20. While theories about her defeat abound, what is clear is that – not unlike Brexit – few in the media and Washington understand just how dissatisfied the electorate was with the status quo.”
Julia Clark, Ipsos North America

 

 

 

TOP TRUMP


donald_trumpTrump’s insurrection against the establishment carried him to the White House. His challenge for 2017 is to turn from bluster and divisive rhetoric to unite and lead: yet a Republican dominated House and Senate will reduce his need to compromise.
8Donald Trump
Source: Ipsos North America
Base: 3,198 adults aged 18+, 2-6 November 2016
Image credit: By Michael Vadon – This file has been extracted from another file: Donald Trump August 19, 2015.jpg, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=42609338

“With the Republicans also in firm control of both chambers, and at least one Supreme Court seat to fill, it is clear that 2017 will look very different politically to the past eight years in America.”
Julia Clark, Ipsos North America

 

 

 

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