Posts byGideon Skinner

How long can a honeymoon last?

The Conservatives have been ahead of Labour every month in our polls since May 2015, and 2016 is no different. In fact, their lead at the end of October was greater than it has been for seven years, at 18 points. But that shouldn’t be a surprise – it’s obvious we are in a honeymoon…
CONTINUE READING

Exit Polls?

The chimes of Big Ben at 10pm on Thursday 7th May were followed by an exit poll heralding a Conservative victory that surprised politicians, commentators, forecasters and, of course, us pollsters (Ben Page discusses this more on p130). History and opinion polls alike had pointed to a ‘war of the weak’ where neither Labour nor…
CONTINUE READING

2014: The perils of prediction – politics and life on Mars

In January 2014, Labour were hoping to hang on to a nine point lead in the polls,1https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/107/Voting-Intention-in-Great-Britain-Recent-Trends.aspx while the Conservatives hoped rising economic optimism 2https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/43/Economic-Optimism-Index-EOI-State-of-the-Economy-1997-Present.aspx could bring up their vote share. The Liberal Democrats were just hanging on to third place in the polls ahead of UKIP, who the public thought were as likely to win…
CONTINUE READING