Posts byBen Page

Foreword

What a year! At one point I was worried that we wouldn’t have much to write about in this year’s Ipsos MORI’s Almanac, but 2016 is a massive reminder that history never moves in straight lines. Millions of words have – and will – be devoted to explaining what drove Britain to Brexit and America…
CONTINUE READING

How did Trump do it?

Despite Hilary Clinton getting more votes than Donald Trump (about 1-2% more, close to the three-point lead predicted by pollsters) she failed to win the Electoral College votes needed to secure the presidency (not predicted by pollsters). But how did this shock election come about? What is it about Trump and his campaign that managed…
CONTINUE READING

What happened with the polling?

The result of June’s referendum was a major shock for the political and business establishment, who apparently saw Britain voting to stay in the EU as a foregone conclusion. But if they did, their mistaken certainty cannot be blamed on the polls. Even though almost all of the final polls pointed towards a Remain win,…
CONTINUE READING

The polls: getting it right (or not)

Ipsos MORI had a mixed election day. Our exit poll for the broadcasters (which we conducted in conjunction with GfK NOP and a team of academic political scientists who make the predictions from the data we collect) was a jaw-dropping success. Once again, almost nobody believed it. Paddy Ashdown, former Liberal Democrat leader, announced he…
CONTINUE READING

Foreword

Welcome to Ipsos MORI’s review of 2015 I’m writing this in the aftermath of the brutal and tragic Paris attacks, which served as a reminder that random terror is now a seemingly permanent fixture of the 21st century. In a world that is evermore prosperous, globalised and interlinked, inequality and religious divides seem as permanent…
CONTINUE READING

Foreword

Welcome to our 2014 Almanac. A year full of surprises. A surge in the public’s economic optimism this spring, but falling unemployment did not see a rise in personal financial optimism. Our politics is more uncertain than ever, a ‘war of the weak’: Labour’s post-referendum collapse in Scotland, the unpopularity of Ed Miliband, and their…
CONTINUE READING